New Britain, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

296
FXUS61 KBOX 020451
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1151 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Weather Advisory has been canceled for Nantucket. We
replaced the Coastal Flood Warning for Nantucket with an
Advisory as the next two high tide cycles will result in pockets
of just minor coastal flooding and splashover.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 130PM Storm Update: Winter Weather Advisory for Nantucket has
  been canceled while the High Wind Warning continues through
  this evening.

- Minor coastal flooding/splashover along the eastern MA coast
  during the overnight and midday high tide cycles Monday. Sub-
  freezing temperatures and very cold road surfaces may allow
  some of the storm surge to freeze, prolonging impacts and
  delaying drainage after high tides.

- Mostly dry weather and not as cold into the middle of next
  week, turning colder and more active late next week/early
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...130PM Storm Update: Winter Weather Advisory for
Nantucket has been canceled while the High Wind Warning
continues through this evening.

As the winds become primarily out of the northwest this
afternoon, ocean enhanced snow gets pushed further down the
South Shore and onto the Cape and begins to lighten up. A
northeasterly streamer offshore is slowly making its way onto
Nantucket, with the potential to drop another coating to 1",
possibly up to 2" in spots. Given the relatively low
accumulations expected this afternoon, elected to drop the
Winter Weather Advisory.

The High Wind Warning remains in effect through 7PM for
Nantucket, with recent observations at ACK reporting 47-50
knots. Model soundings indicate relatively good mixing through
the evening, possibly up to 900 mb, bringing high winds 45-50
knots down to the surface. Winds slowly begin to die down
tonight as the coastal storm moves further east.

Key Message 2...Minor coastal flooding/splashover along the
eastern MA coast during the overnight and midday high tide
cycles Monday. Sub-freezing temperatures and very cold road
surfaces may allow some of the storm surge to freeze, prolonging
impacts and delaying drainage after high tides.

We received several reports of coastal flooding with today/s
high tide cycle. We have two more high tide cycles of
concern...the first a few hours on either side of midnight and
the second will be a few hours on either side of noon Monday.
The first astro high tide overnight is over a foot lower than
today/s. So despite seas being more built up offshore...just
expecting splashover and very minor coastal flooding on the
typically vulnerable roads /not as impactful as what we saw
today/. Therefore...we opted to go with just a coastal flood
advisory for the entire eastern MA coast including Nantucket.
Now the Monday midday astro high tide is similar to the one we
had today...but our winds will be lighter and more offshore
coupled with lower seas as well. This tide will probably have
more minor coastal flooding/splashover than our overnight high
tide...but below the impacts of today/s so we are just running
with a coastal flood advisory. Beach erosion will be a concern
given the impact on multiple high tide cycles.

Lastly...because of the very cold temperatures some of the
storm surge may freeze. This may not only delay drainage after
the high tides...but also result in those typically vulnerable
roads becoming icy and needing treatment.

Key Message 3...Mostly dry weather and not as cold into the
middle of next week, turning colder and more active late next
week/early weekend.

Dry NW flow continues most of this week with a moderating
airmass (925 mb temps up to near -5C) which allows for a dry and
"warmer" week. When we say warmer, we`re talking high
temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s each day. The next
truly arctic blast comes with a strong cold front around
Saturday which will bring 925 mb temps from near -8C on Friday
to closer to -20C Saturday. This arctic front will usher in a
harshly cold and windy airmass behind it with potential for more
extreme cold and freezing spray headlines being needed.
Precipitation-wise, a weak, moisture starved disturbance moves
through the mid level flow which could produce some flurries
Tuesday night into Wednesday but the next shot for a few inches
of snow comes with a clipper system late week into the weekend
that accompanies the front. This is a quick hitter and doesn`t
look to drop more than a few inches of snow as it passes by.
Ensemble guidance shows a 10-30% chance of seeing at least an
inch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Rest of Tonight: High Confidence

VFR. Decreasing NNW winds around 10 knots, remaining gusty near
the waters around 20 knots

Monday: High Confidence

VFR. Winds will be gusty again in the afternoon around 18 to
20 knots from the NW before becoming calm after sunset

Monday night: High Confidence.

VFR. Calm winds.

Tuesday: High Confidence

VFR. Light SW winds under 10 knots.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF.

VFR. Gusty NW winds gradually diminishing through Monday.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

VFR. NW winds around 10 knots through Monday.

Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday through Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gradually improving marine conditions today with high pressure
starting to build in. Winds diminish to under 20 knots from the
NW today, however seas will be slower to diminish, staying
around 6 to 9 feet today. Seas finally drop under 5 feet early
Tuesday morning. Freezing spray remains possible this morning
before temperatures inland warm this afternoon.

Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST Monday for MAZ007-015-
     016-019-022>024.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ231-232-235-
     237.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>234-
     236-251-255.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/BW/McMinn
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KP